The Effect of Economic, Political and Climatic Factors on the Agricultural Economy in the Gaza Strip

Unpublished working paper, prepared during postgraduate study at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. The full text is in Arabic and available as a PDF from the top of this page.

Problem

Agriculture is a pillar of food security and employment in Gaza, yet faces compounded pressures: the blockade in force since 2009 and its restrictions on the movement of agricultural inputs such as fertiliser and seed; repeated bombardment of farmland since 2008 and the destruction of agricultural infrastructure that follows; climatic change in humidity, drought and seasonal patterns; alongside the absence of a supporting vision for the agricultural economy and Palestinian political division.

Data and processing

An integrated quarterly series was constructed covering 1994–2024:

• Quarterly data (2011–2024) from the quarterly national accounts of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics
• Annual data (1994–2010) from the Palestine Monetary Authority annual report and the national accounts
• Annual-to-quarterly conversion using the proportional Denton method, preserving proportional relationships between variables
• Series converted to logarithms to improve stationarity and allow interpretation in percentage terms
• Processing and estimation in STATA 18

Model

Dependent variable: agricultural value added. Determinants fall into three groups:

Stationarity tests showed all variables non-stationary in levels except SPEI-6 and ACDL — a mix of I(0) and I(1) orders of integration — so an ARDL model was used, being best suited here because it permits testing for a long-run equilibrium relationship without requiring a uniform order of integration.

Findings

• A positive long-run relationship between GDP and agricultural value added, consistent with theory holding that economic growth improves agricultural output.
• A negative long-run relationship between agricultural exports and the sector's value added — a result that invites scrutiny of the structure and constraints of exporting rather than its volume alone.